Development: Crowded planet feels the heat
New York, 11 Jul (IPS/Fritzroy A. Sterling) -- Consider the following statistics: at
the beginning of the 20th century, the world population was less than two billion,
but at the dawn of the 21st century, there were more than six billion people on
earth.
According to the US Census Bureau's population clock, the world's population is
now 6,527,525,419. Every 14 years, one billion people are added to the planet. At
this rate, the total number of people in the world will be a little more than 9.1
billion in 50 years.
Although the population growth rate has slowed, the world's population is still
growing. The US population is projected to reach 300 million by October.
According to a report by the Washington-based group Population Connection,
more than half of the world's population will live in cities by 2007, "Making us,
for the first time, an urban species."
Emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming have also
increased significantly since the 20th century. There are greater concentrations of
carbon dioxide (CO2), one of the chief contributors to global warming, in the
atmosphere as a result of continued burning of fossil fuels.
"We have to look at the overall contribution of human activities as it relates to
increased CO2 emissions since industrialisation," said Jay Gulledge, senior
research fellow for Science and Impacts at the Pew Centre on Global Climate
Change.
"There has been a 35% increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2, up from
280 ppm (parts per million) pre-industrial times to a current 380 ppm."
As the population increases, particularly in urban areas, the demand for more
energy requires power plants that already emit huge volumes of greenhouse gases
to produce even more. And as people in lesser developed countries gain access to
electricity, more power plants that emit greenhouse gases are built.
Population growth also goes hand-in-hand with deforestation and clearing of land
to make way for urban sprawl. While living forests act as "carbon sinks",
absorbing greenhouse gases, dead and decaying trees emit carbon into the
atmosphere.
"A third of all current CO2 emissions come from automobiles," Gulledge added.
"Coal-fired power plants and heavy industry also accounts for much of the
greenhouse gas emissions."
"Population growth and global warming are definitely intertwined," Janet Larsen,
director of research at the Earth Policy Institute, told IPS. "A growing population
means a growing use of energy."
The US currently has five percent of the world's population, but produces 25% of
the world's global warming pollution, according to a report by the US-based
environmental group Sierra Club. Together, the most industrialised nations
consume 60% of the world's fossil fuels.
The George W. Bush administration has not offered any indication that it will
accept the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, which has been ratified by 163 nations,
because it believes that the treaty to reduce CO2 emissions would put a strain on
the economy, resulting in a decline in GDP.
US officials have also complained that India and China, two of the biggest emitters
of greenhouse gases, are exempt from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol.
"The Kyoto Protocol was designed to be a first step in what is to become a more
progressive effort," said Tim Herzog, a research associate at the World Resources
Institute. "China and India will have to be addressed in a significant way in
subsequent meetings."
Still, many critics argue that since the nation that emits more than any other, the
US must take a more proactive approach to setting an international standard for the
reduction of greenhouse gases.
"The US consumes more energy and emits more greenhouse gases than any other
nation on earth," Janet Sawin, senior researcher and director of the Energy and
Climate Change Programme at the Worldwatch Institute, told IPS.
"If you add 100,000 more people to the population here, and 100,000 people to a
country in sub-Saharan Africa, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions here would
be far greater because we use more energy per capita here than someone in
sub-Saharan Africa does."
The combined effects of global warming and population growth are palpable,
despite efforts by groups such as the National Centre for Policy Analysis (NCPA)
to cast doubt on the science behind global warming.
According to an October 2005 report from NCPA, "Historical data and ongoing
hurricane research reveal scant evidence linking human-caused warming to more
frequent or powerful hurricanes."
Gulledge dismissed those claims. "I don't speak in absolute terms because science
is not absolute," he said.
"But there is hard scientific evidence that global warming affects hurricanes,
making them more intense in general and more frequent in the Northern Atlantic.
Global warming is causing the loss of mountain glaciers, and some two billion
people rely on glaciers for water supply."
John Seager, the president of Population Connection, said that too often, the
debate about population growth and global warming ignores the fundamental
question of population control.
"There is a deafening silence when it comes to the question of population growth,"
he said. "Most of the discussions about how to handle population growth are
dominated by technological discussions versus basic family planning."
According to Seager, people everywhere should control basic decision-making
about when and whether to have children. This, he said, would in the long run curb
population growth and, eventually, the effects of unchecked population growth on
global warming.
Others argue that undertaking adaptive and preventive policies simultaneously will
best alleviate the effects of global warming.
"We need to act now to do what we can to slow down the rate of global warming,"
said Larsen.
"Most of the world's population growth will occur in underdeveloped countries
where people are most vulnerable to severe climate changes. Therefore,
underdeveloped countries have to develop in a manner that is sustainable."
The transition to cleaner fuels must be swift and widespread, according to Herzog.
He said that people everywhere should become less reliant on coal and petroleum.
"Because growth results in increased GDP, governments should explore
hydropower and wind energy," Herzog said.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)